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Other ongoing research
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Wealth Confiscation and Elite Persistence: Evidence from the Great Reduction
Wealth Confiscation and Elite Persistence: Evidence from the Great Reduction
Abstract This paper studies how far a wealth shock persists across generations and erodes status by examining the largest confiscation in Swedish history: the Great Reduction of 1680, which took half the nobility’s landed wealth. Linking noble genealogies to manor ownership across the Swedish realm, we compare descendants of nobles who lost manors with those of observably similar nobles who did not. Manor ownership falls sharply and stays lower four generations later, by more than mobility correlations predict. Yet careers, marriages, human capital, and demographic outcomes barely move, though they respond strongly to membership in the political elite.
Dynastic Human Capital, Ethnic Capital, and
Intergenerational Mobility of Migrants
Dynastic Human Capital, Ethnic Capital, and
Intergenerational Mobility of Migrants
Abstract We revisit Borjas’ (1992) question of whether slow intergenerational convergence among immigrant groups reflects family transmission or “ethnic capital.” We extend Borjas’ model by applying recently developed latent variable methods that capture dynastic human capital—the influence of parents, as well as grandparents, aunts, and uncles across generations (Adermon et al., 2021). Using Swedish population registers linking three generations, we can map extended family networks for each third-generation immigrant. We also examine whether initial neighborhood placement and heterogeneity across immigrant groups contribute to persistence. Our results show that dynastic human capital accounts for most of the long-run transmission of educational outcomes, while ethnic capital plays only a limited role.
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc? Side Effect Misattribution and Vaccine Hesitancy
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc? Side Effect Misattribution and Vaccine Hesitancy
Abstract We study how personal exposure to suspected vaccine adverse events affects future vaccine uptake in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2021, several European countries suspended the AstraZeneca vaccine after indications of vaccine-induced thrombosis. Although clinically confirmed cases were extremely rare, extensive media coverage may have created a perception of a broader link between COVID-19 vaccines and blood clots. Governments face a difficult trade-off: acting quickly is vital to prevent harm, yet premature interventions risk amplifying fears and discouraging vaccination. This paper speaks to the scope of these costs by studying how salient personal experiences lead individuals to overestimate the likelihood of adverse events and infer, often incorrectly, that they developed a vaccine-related symptom. Using new Swedish register data on reported adverse events, vaccination uptake, and healthcare use, together with matching methods, we estimate the effects of exposure to blood clots unlikely to have been caused by COVID-19 vaccination. We find, first, that such exposure increases hesitancy toward subsequent doses, plausibly due to false attribution. Second, effects are strongest for blood-clot-related conditions—the ones most similar to vaccine-induced thrombosis—where uptake falls by 4 percentage points, suggesting an important role for health authorities and media in shaping perceptions. When clinicians report the events as suspected side effects, subsequent uptake drops by a further 13 percentage points, indicating that cues from healthcare providers also shape perceived risk and influence future vaccine decisions.
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